Reagan vs. Obama, Employment-Population Ratio

Take a look at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data for the Employment-Population Ratio, and overlay the numbers from the Ronald Reagan Presidency versus the Barack Obama (a.k.a. Barry Soetoro) pResidency:

Reagan vs. Obama
(Click on graph to enlarge)

There are some very interesting things that come to light…

Since the inauguration of a new President occurs on January 20th, I show that inauguration month but consider their first full year as February to the following January.

Ronald Reagan was inaugurated January 20, 1981 and left office January 20, 1989.

Barack Obama was inaugurated January 20, 2009 and will leave office no later than January 20, 2017 (possibly sooner if Congress investigates the 100% fraudulent PDF file which was posted on the White House website).

Comparing Reagan’s and Obama’s terms, we see that there have been five months when the Employment-Population Ratio was the same:

Month Reagan Reagan Obama Obama Match?
Aug – 1st Year

1981

59.1

2009

59.1

TRUE

Sep – 1st Year

1981

58.7

2009

58.7

TRUE

Nov – 1st Year

1981

58.6

2009

58.6

TRUE

Sep – 3rd Year

1983

58.4

2011

58.4

TRUE

Oct – 3rd Year

1983

58.4

2011

58.4

TRUE

A few observations from that data:

1) What Ronald Reagan “inherited” from Jimmy Carter was worse than what Barack Obama “inherited” from George W. Bush.

2) Ronald Reagan began elected office in Washington, D.C. on the day he became President, so one can honestly say that he had nothing to do with what he “inherited”.

3) Barack Obama began elected office in Washington, D.C. more than 4 years before the day he became President. Obama was sworn in as a U.S. Senator on January 3, 2005. For Obama’s first 2 years as Senator, Democrats were the minority party, but on January 3, 2007, Democrats took majority control of the House and Senate, and therefore overall majority control of the three budget-making and economic policy-making bodies in Washington, D.C. – (the House, Senate, and Presidency). In the last month that Republicans controlled the House, Senate, and Presidency (after 144 straight months of Republican party majority control), the Employment-Population Ratio was 63.4%. Barack Obama’s third and fourth years as U.S. Senator were as part of the majority party which drove budgets and economic policy, and drove the Employment-Population Ratio down to 60.6% the month Obama was inaugurated. So, one can’t honestly say that Obama had nothing to do with what he “inherited”. Obama played a very direct role in the multiple minimum wage hikes and record-breaking deficits of FY 2008 and FY 2009. Obama played a very direct role in the subprime mortgage crisis. Senator Obama came in the top 3 of Top Recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Campaign Contributions, 1989-2008, exceeded only by Chris Dodd and John Kerry, and if you consider that Obama was only campaigning for Federal office for five of those 20 years (2004-2008, whereas Dodd and Kerry covered all 20 of those years), Obama’s per year receipts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Campaign Contributions easily tops the list.

4) In August, September, and November of their first year in the White House, Reagan and Obama had equivalent E-P ratios.

5) From there, things got worse for Reagan, while they levelled out for Obama.

6) The low point of the E-P ratio under Reagan came in February and March of his third year in office. After that, the effects of the Reagan Tax Cuts started to be seen in a steadily improving E-P ratio.

7) By September and October of Reagan’s third year in office, just 6 months after hitting the low point, the E-P ratio was back up to matching the values from those same months in Obama’s third year in office.

8) From there, Reagan’s E-P ratio continued to soar, while Obama’s E-P ratio has continued to stagnate.  The only “improvement” has come from full-time jobs turning into a larger quantity of part-time jobs.

2013_06 Employment in America - GOP vs DEM
(Click on graph to enlarge)

UPDATE:
Expanding on the concepts expressed in 3) above, let’s compare time periods beginning with when Ronald Reagan became part of the Majority Party in Washington, D.C. (January 20, 1981) and when Barack Obama became part of the Majority Party in Washington, D.C. (January 3, 2007). Let’s see what each “inherited” from the opposition party when the balance of power shifted, and what impact their party’s policies had on the economy when they took majority control and could push their policies…

Reagan vs. Obama, from start in Majority Party
(Click to enlarge)

UPDATE:
One more perspective… this time comparing the entire time that Reagan and Obama held elected office in Washington, D.C.
Ronald Reagan held elected office in Washington, D.C. from January 20, 1981 to January 20, 1989
Barack Obama has held elected office in Washington, D.C. from January 3, 2005 to present (with the brief exception of about two months between when he resigned his Senate post on November 16, 2008 and when he was sworn in as pResident on January 20, 2009).
So let’s compare the Employment-Population Ratio beginning with when Reagan and Obama began elected office in Washington, D.C. and see what that looks like…

Reagan vs. Obama, from start of elected office in D.C.
(Click to enlarge)

When Reagan began elected office in Washington, D.C. in January 1981, Democrats had held majority control of Washington, D.C. (holding 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate, and Presidency) continuously for the previous 26 years. Reagan inherited a double-dip recession from the Democrats, and turned it around in two years… then had six straight years of very strong growth in the Employment-Population ratio.

When Obama began elected office in Washington, D.C. in January 2005, Republicans had held majority control of Washington, D.C. (holding 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate, and Presidency) continuously for the previous 10 years and would continue to hold majority control for Obama’s first 2 years. On January 3, 2007, the balance of power shifted from Republican to Democrat, and Obama and his fellow Democrats inherited an Employment-Population Ratio of 63.4%.

It was the Democrat majority that pushed through three hikes in the Minimum Wage, hikes which ended the recovery we had been enjoying since the passage of the second part of the Bush Tax Cuts. It was the Democrats who protected Fannie and Freddie up to the point of their collapse. And it was the Democrats who rammed ObamaCare through with late-night votes on a bill they hadn’t read and had to use the reconciliation process to achieve final passage and avoid a Senate filibuster.

Democrats own this economy… the longest period of below-59% employment since April 1978.

========================================

UPDATE:

Reagan vs. Obama, E-P ratio

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22 Responses to Reagan vs. Obama, Employment-Population Ratio

  1. Whoa. Good analysis, RP. Except for the tragedy of it, of course. I have to wonder how much longer we can exist as a part-time nation before we see some real poverty.

  2. I was just thinking about various areas that a President influences, and how each one of them is now worse after 4.5 years of Obama…

    Economy… worse than it was in January 2009.

    Foreign Relations… worse than they were in January 2009.

    Race Relations… worse than they were in January 2009.

    Respect for the Rule of Law… worse than it was in January 2009.

    Mob violence… worse than it was in January 2009.

    Etc….

  3. Mort Zuckerman: A Jobless Recovery Is a Phony Recovery
    More people have left the workforce than got a new job during the recovery—by a factor of nearly three.

  4. UPDATE made to the post above:
    Expanding on the concepts expressed in 3) in the post above, let’s compare time periods beginning with when Ronald Reagan became part of the Majority Party in Washington, D.C. (January 20, 1981) and when Barack Obama became part of the Majority Party in Washington, D.C. (January 3, 2007). Let’s see what each “inherited” from the opposition party when the balance of power shifted, and what impact their party’s policies had on the economy when they took majority control and could push their policies…

    Reagan vs. Obama, from start in Majority Party

  5. Another UPDATE made to the post above:
    One more perspective… this time comparing the entire time that Reagan and Obama held elected office in Washington, D.C.
    Ronald Reagan held elected office in Washington, D.C. from January 20, 1981 to January 20, 1989
    Barack Obama has held elected office in Washington, D.C. from January 3, 2005 to present (with the brief exception of about two months between when he resigned his Senate post on November 16, 2008 and when he was sworn in as pResident on January 20, 2009).
    So let’s compare the Employment-Population Ratio beginning with when Reagan and Obama began elected office in Washington, D.C. and see what that looks like…

    Reagan vs. Obama, from start of elected office in D.C.
    (Click to enlarge)

    When Reagan began elected office in Washington, D.C. in January 1981, Democrats had held majority control of Washington, D.C. (holding 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate, and Presidency) continuously for the previous 26 years. Reagan inherited a double-dip recession from the Democrats, and turned it around in two years… then had six straight years of very strong growth in the Employment-Population ratio.

    When Obama began elected office in Washington, D.C. in January 2005, Republicans had held majority control of Washington, D.C. (holding 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate, and Presidency) continuously for the previous 10 years and would continue to hold majority control for Obama’s first 2 years. On January 3, 2007, the balance of power shifted from Republican to Democrat, and Obama and his fellow Democrats inherited an Employment-Population Ratio of 63.4%.

    It was the Democrat majority that pushed through three hikes in the Minimum Wage, hikes which ended the recovery we had been enjoying since the passage of the second part of the Bush Tax Cuts. It was the Democrats who protected Fannie and Freddie up to the point of their collapse. And it was the Democrats who rammed ObamaCare through with late-night votes on a bill they hadn’t read and had to use the reconciliation process to achieve final passage and avoid a Senate filibuster.

    Democrats own this economy… the longest period of below-59% employment since April 1978.

    • I’m not alone in looking at the 8.5 years that Obama has been in elected office in Washington, D.C. … check out this recent post on the White House web site:

      Eight years ago, not long after he was elected to the United States Senate, President Obama went to Knox College in his home state of Illinois where he laid out his economic vision for the country.

      http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/07/20/youre-going-want-watch-speech

      When Obama and his fellow Democrats took majority control of Washington, D.C. on January 3, 2007, they inherited an Employment-Population Ratio of 63.4%. What have Democrats’ economic policies brought us? The longest period of below-59% employment since April 1978.

  6. For those who are on Twitter,
    please share this:

    https://twitter.com/ITTRP/status/357582410742919168



  7. When Obama has lost the Huffington Post…

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