Arthur Conan Doyle’s character, Sherlock Holmes, had a maxim that he repeated to Watson: If all possibilities but one are eliminated, the remaining one, however unlikely, must be the truth. I generally frown on this maxim, because like Occam’s Razor, it tends to be misapplied. In my experience, it’s far more likely, in the real world, that we have simply failed to think up all the bizarre possibilities. But his point is well made. Most people fail to see what’s obvious because after they follow what the evidence tells them, they simply can’t believe it, and so they don’t.
In the case of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370, the experts, mostly the Malaysian authorities, U.S. military analysts and the world news, seem determined to ignore Holmes advice. There are some wonderful bits of hard data proving what has happened to Flight 370, but they have been mostly discarded because “experts” have proclaimed them “impossible.” Perhaps they’re right to do so, but it still gives me a queasy feeling about either their competence or their agendas. For some of the latest on the investigation, see CBS here. Let’s look at the facts:
1. Two young men on the flight were Iranians with stolen passports.
This is not suspicious at all, I know, (wink) but the speed with which these men were dismissed as “not associated with terror” was pretty shocking. I don’t think this is meaningless data. —-> Points to Iran.
2. Malaysian radar indicates the plane flew WEST into the Indian Ocean.
Nevertheless, for days, all searches and speculation have been directed north and south, in other directions entirely. Some of this has been because of the stubborn assumption that such a large plane “couldn’t possibly” fly out into the ocean with no place to land, despite the fact that the Boeing 777 is uniquely capable of landing and take-off from short, non-concrete runways. But a westerly flight is exactly what you would expect for a flight to the Arabian Sea. —-> Points to the Middle East.
3. Inmarsat claims that engine telemetry was received as long as 7 and 1/2 hours into the flight and no breakup signals have been found.
This is what you call indisputable evidence that the plane did not crash anywhere in the whole Bay of Bengal region, but STILL that’s all everyone talks about: finding the crash. For some reason, experts like Charles Krauthammer are saying that it’s “impossible” that a hijacked plane could find a non-hostile place to land, so it must not have done so. Really? Krauthammer pointed out that a state receiving a hijacked plane would have to be a bona fide outlaw nation to do such a thing. I don’t know about Chuck, but I’ve heard about just such an outlaw nation. It’s called Iran, and it is within a 7 and 1/2 hour flight of Kuala Lumpur. Some say the plane didn’t have the range, especially if it was only fueled for a flight to Beijing, but clearly it was doing something for that time. If it didn’t have the reserve fuel, then it must have been refueled, and despite what the experts say, a refueling stop at 3:00 AM at one of the airports in the Maldives before any alarms were raised about the missing flight, is definitely within the realm of possibility. However it was done, the evidence testifies that it WAS done. Exactly how is really not that important. —-> Points to Iran.
4. Inmarsat data indicates the final engine pings were received at 40 degrees off the antenna nadir of the geosynchronous satellite over the Indian Ocean. That encompasses spots in east Africa, Libya, Syria, Azerbaijan, Iraq and … yes … northern Iran.
It also includes places much closer to Malaysia, where the aircraft certainly wouldn’t be after flying 7 and 1/2 hours, but that’s where the experts have chosen to focus. As the map below shows, the red arcs are those portions of the 40 degree circle that it is presumed Flight 370 could have gone with limited fuel, despite the fact that it clearly was not that limited, after all.
Keep in mind that these red arcs are not flight paths. They are just segments of the circle that appears to be where the final pings came from. They have chosen to leave off half of the circle. I’m not entirely sure why. Maybe there’s a reason, such as the signals being known to have come from the eastern side of the antenna. If so, they aren’t telling. Once again … —-> Points to Iran.
Is there some reason why everyone seems so eager NOT to conclude that Flight 370 might be in Iran right now, after flying around the horn of India, across the Arabian Sea and settling into an easy touchdown and comfortable welcome? If so, I’m missing it.
UPDATE: In Times of Israel interview, Isaac Yeffet, who served as head of global security for Israel’s national carrier in the 1980s and now works as an aviation security consultant in New Jersey, said investigators were correct in honing in on the two fake-passport carrying Iranian passengers on the doomed flight, and they have wasted valuable time by exploring other leads. Emphasis mine.
Yeffet further said: “What happened to this aircraft, nobody knows. My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved,” he said. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”